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Easy Posted on 09/08/2010 23:46
The Strachan Effect

I really am struggling to see a way out under Strachan...

One of my mates said I must be the only happy man on Teesside! I'm really not. I dont like the fact we have been awful under Strachan. That's just how it is. I may never have wanted him and I'll always dislike him, but if a manager gets results you respect him for that. Strachan isn't getting results. His record is shocking!

Strachan has completely changed the dynamic of the team in a negative way. We have gone from being young, athletic and pacey, to being old, lethargic and slow! We were naive under Southgate! We are under Strachan! We conceded bad goals under Southgate! We are under Strachan! We struggled for goals under Southgate! You see where I'm going...

All this talk of back bone and players who stand up and be counted. Sounds like spin to me...

At the very least, Southgate was honest... This guy doesn't give an opinion. He spouts on about Willow Flood! Hardly a word about the appalling nature of our defeat!

I'm becoming dramatically disenchanted.

For those that might describe as a 'bed wetter'... I was totally behind the club, up until the sacking of Gareth Southgate! Relegation was painful, but I was with the club. Now I feel very different, for the first time in my life...

If we dont get promoted this year then it could take a long time to achieve. I dont want mediocrity for this club... I'll support them regardless, but we all want the same thing. Premier league football and a team that is capable of filling the Riverside...

I really hope Strachan comes good, but sadly, I doubt that he will... [|)]

Lisbonlegend Posted on 09/08/2010 23:55
The Strachan Effect

Some very salient points but Southgate took us from the UEFA cup final to the Championship so all the talk of young pacy, etc. is a load of tripe.

Also "At the very least, Southgate was honest... This guy doesn't give an opinion. He spouts on about Willow Flood! Hardly a word about the appalling nature of our defeat!" is a load of rubbish aswell.

It's a poor start, we lack width and creativity but the transfer window isn't shut yet so there's still hope. If we have this team when it shuts then I will be worried.


Easy Posted on 09/08/2010 23:59
The Strachan Effect

Simplifying the tangled web that was Southgate's tenure a little, Lisbon. Fact is, it's getting worse under Strachan. Much worse...

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 00:00
The Strachan Effect

The jury is out on strachan. I said all through the summer now is the time for him show what he is made of, but until the transfer window closes I don't think we can judge how the season will pan out.

As for southgate; the man failed. Let it go.

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 00:04
The Strachan Effect

No...

Lisbonlegend Posted on 10/08/2010 00:07
The Strachan Effect

Is it? I don't agree, Southgates tenure was the worst in our recent history.

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 00:13
The Strachan Effect

Well done Lisbon... Not a mitigating circumstance in sight... Anyway, this was more to do with the current situation and how nothing has improved...

Lisbonlegend Posted on 10/08/2010 00:21
The Strachan Effect

Interesting, our home form has generally improved except for Saturday. I agree though, progress has not been as quickly as we had hoped but there were a lot of things which were very wrong.

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 00:27
The Strachan Effect

I think our form in general, given the 13 games of last season, compared to the following 34, has dramatically nose-dived. Do you realise that Strachan has managed 2 more wins in his tenure than Southgate managed in the first 13 games? To suggest that anything has improved is, in my opinion, extremely misguided. It was bad under Southgate. It's getting worse...

Lisbonlegend Posted on 10/08/2010 00:29
The Strachan Effect

I just find it hilarious that you can discount all of Southgates tenure other than the 13 games at the start of last season. Have you fogotten the 5-0 drubbing we took at home, one of our worst home defeats in a long time.

SidSnot Posted on 10/08/2010 00:31
The Strachan Effect

Southgate failed.
Strachan is currently failing.
They are the two facts. It's a results measured business. Everything else is opinion.

I just hope that fact number 2 becomes incorrect very shortly.

Lisbonlegend Posted on 10/08/2010 00:36
The Strachan Effect

Agreed, both failures so far and unless we sign some wingers we will continue to struggle this season.

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 00:43
The Strachan Effect

I quite clearly said... 'it was bad under Southgate. It's getting worse'

Edit: And it's impossible to compare Southgate's form in the Premier League, to Strachan 's form in the Championship. You can only compare them on results in this division. Southgate's were far better. He had 24 points from 13 games. Strachan managed 38 from 33... I'm no mathematician but those figures speak for themselves. I'm not for one minute suggesting that everything was rosey under Southgate, but it has got worse... In true FMTTM fashion, I feel the need to write 'FACT'

SplendidStuff Posted on 10/08/2010 01:03
The Strachan Effect

Southgate had Johnson, Tuncay and Huth when we started the season.

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 01:08
The Strachan Effect

Tuncay had an impact in one game! Doncaster at home. The rest of the time he had cameos. Huth was a big loss. Scratch that, a huge loss, but there were signs that Southgate was coming to terms with that loss. Strachan had Johnson for more than 13 games...

This thread wasn't a 'defend Southgate' thread... It's about the current manager and the fact that we have gone from a bad situation, to a much worse one...

br14 Posted on 10/08/2010 01:14
The Strachan Effect

"Southgate had Johnson, Tuncay and Huth when we started the season"

Even without Tuncay and Huth Southgates numbers were still at least as good.

And Johnson could have been kept till the end of the season. When he left we still were within spitting distance of the play-offs.

At this point we certainly haven't moved forward under Strachan, but he should be given a few months to deliver.

This league is tight enough that even teams in the lower reaches of the division have a chance at play-offs provided managerial change comes soon enough.

I still maintain that Southgate should have gone in the summer, and that once he was given the job last season he should have had till at least December.

That would still have given Strachan time to rebuild in January, but would have demonstrated whether Southgate could get us back up.

Either way if Strachan doesn't pick up wins then he'll be gone by December.

Steve Gibson cannot afford the club to be in this division another season. He stands to lose millions.

SidSnot Posted on 10/08/2010 01:14
The Strachan Effect

To be fair to Strachan, Southgate had Huth and Tuncay at his disposal and Adam Johnson on fire. However, his record post their leaving was still better than Strachan, but only by a little.

You can compare - see Boksic's wage theory [^]

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 01:46
The Strachan Effect

Boksic's wage theory would have had us in the top 3 and Blackpool in the bottom 4... [ref]

Bukowski Posted on 10/08/2010 02:10
The Strachan Effect

"Huth was a big loss. Scratch that, a huge loss, but there were signs that Southgate was coming to terms with that loss."


Are you taking the p1ss? He signed Sean St Ledger ffs.

Southgate was the worst Boro manager I can remember. Strachan has tried to change the dynamic of the side and so far has failed.

Both have been crap but, to be fair to Strachan, he's had had to deal with a lot of the crap left behind by Southgate. I'll give him another 10 games or so before passing judgement.

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 02:20
The Strachan Effect

Am I taking the pi$$? No...

Southgate had 3 and a bit seasons, and failed in one of those. Strachan has been abysmal from start to finish.

We had a blip when Huth left but then we picked up wins at Reading and at home to Derby...

onthemap Posted on 10/08/2010 02:41
The Strachan Effect

"Southgate had 3 and a bit seasons, and failed in one of those."

Southgate failed miserably from start to finish mate and left us with an appallingly bad squad after pouring millions down the drain.

If you wanted to really compare the two then you'd need to give Strachan 50m or so and see whether he ended up with the garbage Southgate did.

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 08:57
The Strachan Effect

Managers really don't matter that much in terms of actual team performance (points accrued over the course of the season).

Better teams get more points than poor team. Better teams are made up of better players. it is as simple as that.

Fact is post Eindhoven we have been cutting our player wage budget year on year. When you cut your wage budget the quality of players you can attract and retain goes down. The manager's "effect" on the team is - marginal, indirect & small.

Computer games like football manager and to an extent FIFA seem to have given the fan in the street the idea that managers somehow directly control the players "in play" and are therefore directly responsible for results. It just isn't like that.

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 09:08
The Strachan Effect

Boksic, where were Boro positioned regarding the wages spent the year we were relegated under Southgate?

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 09:12
The Strachan Effect

Beacuse of the reporting periof MFC use in their accounts (which is out of step with most other clubs) the wage spend is a little opaque as it doesn't match the season end but bottom 4 or 5.

And your point is?

JonJon Posted on 10/08/2010 09:16
The Strachan Effect

Nah. To suggest that managers don't have an effect on a team's performance is just wrong. There are plenty of examples, even nowadays, of managers who can make average players into a team that is able to compete, maybe not at the very highest level, but in the top division certainly.

We were a club in decline under Southgate. He did OK at first, but it was basically with McLaren's team. When he started to assemble his own team then he got shown up. I too think that Gibson should have acted in the summer but even so, Strachan still had time and opportunity to tighten things up, but he didn't. I expected him to make more of an immediate impact, such as Venables made in the Robson days, but he seems not to have the tactical skills to do that. He doesn't have a very good record at doing the kind of job he's being asked to do now and I would be quite surprised if he did suddenly come good.

Ouroboros Posted on 10/08/2010 09:17
The Strachan Effect

I feel that a lot of people are panicking prematurely. The team has been radically rebuilt over the summer, and Saturday was our first competetive game against a useful Ipswich team that was largely unchanged since last season.

Perhaps some of our players were complacent, but hopefully they've had a rude awakening.

mikehunt Posted on 10/08/2010 09:20
The Strachan Effect

Mappy posts it spot on for me.
Southgate a great player for us, but a disaster as a manager.
Prem managers stand or fall based on results and on how they manage their transfer budgets.
Gareth got us relegated in pitiful style and signed appallingly.
He's gone - move on.

Strachan is like marmite - you either love him or hate him.
I really want him to do well, have been pleased with the squad turnover, but was very disappointed on saturday - it was dire.
No point in moaning on, we are 1 poor result into a 46 game season. Strachan is not blind. He will have seen what is wrong as well as anybody and there is still three weeks to go before squads are fixed.
As Lisbon says, team will not be what it was on saturday by the end of this month.

But FFS, can we move on from Gareth. Remember him only for being a great player and a smashing bloke.

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 09:23
The Strachan Effect

Well, clearly my point is weather our final position in that season correlates to the theory you champion.

Your rather ambiguous answer hasn't really helped.



boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 09:30
The Strachan Effect

The wage curve correlates to points accrued with about 93% accuracy.

It's not quite a force of gravity in football but to suggest that teams with small wage budgets can defy it for long periods flies in the face of the statistics with the notable exception of Brian Clough's tenure at Derby and Forest.

The modern fan seems to have a view that apart from say Chelsea and Man Utd most teams have "about the same" resources and the ones with the "better" managers finish higher up the league. That is just not true. When you compare the key resource of each club - player wage bill - it explains pretty much how every team will do over the course of the season.

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 09:32
The Strachan Effect

it looks like strachan might be turning into a disaster too P34 W9 D11 L14. i cant remember the last time a boro manager was that poor.

over a season that would get you just above the relegation zone in 20/21st position.

he would have probably left many other clubs by now.

southgate should have gone after we lost at WBA, then gone in the summer but then it was stupid to sack him when we were so close to the top. Will gibson be as ruthless with strachan if we dont improve.

Strachan needs to sort it out pretty quickly. he has bene given the fund and bankjing on ex SPL players might backfire.

the problem is we have to get promoted this season and if we are still off the pace after 10 games then I think gibson should seriously think about changing things

Lets not drag southgate into justifying how disappointing strachan is doing. because a few on here were backing southgate until the day he was sacked and now admit he is a poor manager

nothing has improved since strachan has come in. on saturday it just looked the same as before he became manager. are we making any progress under strachan no matter how small?his tactics and team selection is questionable. we are just as soft as we were before

the question is how long do you give him if we dont show signs of improving. do youchange it while we have a chance or do you stick with him and hope it suddenly works. his tactics are dull, he is turning us into a team of 100%'ers with no pace or creativity. fine if your ambition is jsut staying up.

saturday was the first time when i really seriously had doubts that he is going to get us up. how long before gibson thinks the same?

JonJon Posted on 10/08/2010 09:33
The Strachan Effect

OK Mike, I agree about Southgate. It is time to move on.

It worries me a bit when people start saying things like "rude awakening", "wake-up call" etc. because we've been hearing that consistently for the last four years and nobody's woken up yet.

I used to think that Strachan would be just the man to put a bit of fight into a team, but obviously his feisty image is just that ... an image.

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 09:33
The Strachan Effect

'It's not quite a force of gravity in football'

Interesting. Is that possibly the first step in a backwards direction I've seen from you on this subject Boksic?


bear66 Posted on 10/08/2010 09:40
The Strachan Effect

I think he was genuinely shocked at the manner of defeat with no fight on Saturday, but trying the guilt thing on the interviewer regarding Flood was dreadful. Perhaps he really thought Scottish Premiership was somewhere between the Premiership and Championship quality and now he's realised it's League 1 at best

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 09:41
The Strachan Effect

No, all I am saying is that it does not correlate 100% to points accrued, there are other factors - injuries to key players, bad refereeing and just downright bad luck - but that leaves relatively little room for the "manager effect".

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 09:44
The Strachan Effect

how do you explain strachan doing worse than southgate?

JonJon Posted on 10/08/2010 09:46
The Strachan Effect

"to suggest that teams with small wage budgets can defy it for long periods"

No, I wouldn't suggest it can happen for "long periods". Even Clough had to start buying more expensive players eventually. Which actually leads to the other point that even if someone did a clough and got us up, there would have to be spending if we were to stay there. If people really do want the club to move up and up then Gibson will have to open his wallet again, though I doubt whether he would want to or even whether he's rich enough to compete nowadays.

My own feeling is that Eindhoven was as good as it gets for us and that we are now back where we were in the 70s until the next big change comes maybe in 20 or 30 years' time.

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 09:50
The Strachan Effect

The hysterical reaction to Saturday's defeat with a pretty much new team yet to bed in rises to new levels with each passing day.

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 09:50
The Strachan Effect

The thing is, if what boksic says is right, why are we even debating this?

It's all irrelevant isn't it?

bear66 Posted on 10/08/2010 09:52
The Strachan Effect

It started with the Strachan interview as he seemed to be shocked. The few fans not shouting "top of the League, we'll beat them 4-0" (now that was hysteria) appear to be closer to reality

JonJon Posted on 10/08/2010 09:58
The Strachan Effect

I wouldn't call it a hysterical reaction to doubt whether the guy's good enough. He hasn't shown much sign of it so far and he's not exactly new in the job.

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 09:58
The Strachan Effect

'The few fans not shouting "top of the League, we'll beat them 4-0" (now that was hysteria) appear to be closer to reality'

Now now, Easy, don't start exaggerating.

I would say most people were tentatively optimistic, with some getting carried away, and some full of doom.

Usual craic really.

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 10:02
The Strachan Effect

Gravyboat - have a read of Moneyball by Michael Lewis, a book about US baseball, occationally teams with less resources can compete but it is rare.

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 10:02
The Strachan Effect

for me, there is doubt there because we havent made any progress at all. you can use the excuse of new players but you expect more of a fight. better team plan. its not particularly about the result more to do with how we played. how we sat back at 1-0 at home then when they went 2-1 up we had no answers and strachan was out thought by keane. even when it was clear we werent going to get back in the game he was reluctant to take boyd off and give lita a chance. boyd was in their back pockets and lita might have made more impact with better movement and quickness. strachan seems a bit stubborn/arrogant

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 10:09
The Strachan Effect

I'm aware of it Boksic, it interests me, I should read it, and I - despite the questioning - fundamentally accept the theory holds water.

The idea that the clubs with the most money do the best is an easy one to grasp.

I just think you take the 'manager has little influence' slightly too far.

Yes, money is the key element, yes, there are a pool of average managers who will make little of no difference to a clubs fortunes, but get the right man, the manager who genuinely has a talent for building a team, and I think his influence is greater than you suggest.

JonJon Posted on 10/08/2010 10:12
The Strachan Effect

I'm not sure that stubborn or arrogant comes into it. If the guy knew what to do he would have done it. And I think you can basically say that about his tenure so far.

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 10:12
The Strachan Effect

"I wouldn't call it a hysterical reaction to doubt whether the guy's good enough"

Me neither, but since Saturday each player in the team has gone from being a potential champion, to almost every one of them not being good enough for this league, in one game FFS.

bear66 Posted on 10/08/2010 10:15
The Strachan Effect

Excellent summary sas

JonJon Posted on 10/08/2010 10:16
The Strachan Effect

I agree gravyboat, and I think we might have a good example of your "average" manager here right now.

I don't believe the hype because I don't think that Strachan has done anything to justify it. It just seems to be blind optimism fuelled by a desperate desire to get back to where we were.

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 10:17
The Strachan Effect

Gravyboat - what "interests" me is that fans have these fixed veiws of how "good" or "bad" certain managers are with no reference to objective information, simply by "gut feel". The wage curve is one of the pieces of information by which you can compare success or failure but what it shows, as I keep on saying, that the impact of the manager is, at best, overstated.

(I am surprised this thread has gone on so long without someone posting the usual "So you are saying we should just get rid of the manager" when I have never actually suggested that.)

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 10:19
The Strachan Effect

anyone know how many players strachan has brought in to the club since he arrived. even if just on loan. i wonder if its a bit unsetting and not giving players the chance to gel and work as a team.

wonder how many players he has used too

speckyget Posted on 10/08/2010 10:20
The Strachan Effect

What I've never been able to understand about your theory boksic is how (or indeed if) it disentagles the effects of the wealthiest clubs being able to afford the 'best' managers. Surely if you correlate manager salaries to success the relationship is at least as strong as player wages?

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 10:20
The Strachan Effect

Go on then, I'll indulge you.

Why have a manager at all? I don't think I've seen this bit before.

bear66 Posted on 10/08/2010 10:22
The Strachan Effect

"The wage curve is one of the pieces of information by which you can compare success or failure"

@boksic - I've asked a number of times - do you have any information to confirm this correlation at Champioship level? Or does it just sort out top 6 / bottom 6 in the Premiership?

Jonny_Ingbar Posted on 10/08/2010 10:22
The Strachan Effect

The best managers are the ones that provide the execption to the rule Boksic, Mourinho for example who won the CL one a relative shoestring with Porto.

There are dozens of examples, they are not hard to find.

But in relation to Strachan he makes all the right noises, says all the right things (we want men, characters, fitter players etc) but so far he hasn't delivered the one place it counts, on the pitch.


earlofcoulby Posted on 10/08/2010 10:23
The Strachan Effect

Might take a good few games for these players to gel- start with a few 'unlucky' losses, scrape the odd draw and possibly win one or two.
Injury crisis and Christmas slump- a run of defeats and weak excuses from StraCON.
Fears of relegation- a few wins and it`s back on track for the big time.
Mediocre end of season has `we might make the play-offs` crowd getting a stiffy on.
Finish about 8th.
StraCON promises better next season (probably have foooked off by then with any luck) blah, blah, blah, fooooookin blah.


boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 10:26
The Strachan Effect

Gravy - I dopn't say you don't need a manager so I can't devise that argument.

Specky - the "top" managers say in the EPL are all paid about the same so their salaries don't correlate to points accrued.

bear66 Posted on 10/08/2010 10:27
The Strachan Effect

No answer for bear66? Thought not . . .

speckyget Posted on 10/08/2010 10:32
The Strachan Effect

That suggests to me that they do correlate. At least as well as player wages.

Muttley Posted on 10/08/2010 10:35
The Strachan Effect

If you accept that the players have the greatest effect on any result then it's a little unfair to include the results gained by Strachan just after Southgate left. In that period it was Southgate's side with a few disinterested mercenaries like Dave "I long to be in the Thames Valley" Kitson. That period (from Southgate's axing to January) netted 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 lost - which is relegation form no matter how you frame it.

After January things looked up a little, we signed Flood, Robson and Macdonald who ALL looked decent players. THEY have n't turned into bad players over the summer. The new signings were poor but it was for most of us the first time we've seen most of them.

The hand wringing over one defeat against a team that had obviously played together for some considerable period of time is out of proportion to the consequences of the defeat. It is also unhelpful when people "massage" the stats to validate their Anti-Strachan stance.

I have to be honest and say it was hugely disappointing on Saturday to turn in such an ineffectual performance BUT let's hang with WGS and see where the ride takes us for a little while longer before despairing, eh?

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 10:41
The Strachan Effect

The wage curve works in the championship just as much as it does in the Eredivisie or Serie B in Italy.

Look who finished first and second in the champtionship last season.

The wage curve does NOT predict cup success and Mourinho is a wage curve manager if ever I saw one. His league suceess in each country has been at the teams with the biggest wage budget. Stick him in charge of Barnsley, there's a test.

bear66 Posted on 10/08/2010 10:44
The Strachan Effect

It's not about 1st and 2nd - ask Blackpool and Notts Forest. What about 1 - 24 wages versus 1 - 24 position. Have you got the figures?

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 10:46
The Strachan Effect

All club's accounts are available via companies house.

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 10:48
The Strachan Effect

Some sense on this board at last Muttley. [^]

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 10:50
The Strachan Effect

skiprat, can you honestly say we have seen any improvement since strachan arrived 34 matches ago? i'm not judgiung him on 1 game i'm judging him on 34 games. if we were judging him on just this season then we would have done the same with southgate and he would still be in a job.

Hercules Posted on 10/08/2010 10:52
The Strachan Effect

So boksic, if cup success can't be attributed to the wage curve...how is Mourinho so successful in cups?

Is it because he's the best manager around and can affect the outcome of matches?

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 10:58
The Strachan Effect

That's fair enough Sas, of course we've seen no improvement but this is pretty much a new team that so far has played one bad game.

I don't think there should be much of a comparison made to this season's team to the previous 33(?) games.

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 11:01
The Strachan Effect

but you see my point. southgate was judged on previous seasons but now with strachan the previous 33 games are being discarded because he he wasnt really managing the team was he?

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:08
The Strachan Effect

Sotuhgate failed with his own team and was rightly shown the door, Strachan hasn't (yet) and should be given the same leeway that previous managers have had.

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 11:11
The Strachan Effect

do you think 12 months into his job is a fair time to make a judgement on strachan to see if he has made ANY improvement. where is your cut off point?

southgate got us relegated but did a better job in the championship and was wrongly sacked at that time. strachan has done a worse job upto now. how much more spending can he do to cover up that he isnt doing it?

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:13
The Strachan Effect

He hasn't been in the job for 12 months.

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 11:14
The Strachan Effect

that what i'm saying would you give him 12 months and think that is a fair reflection to make a judgement. where is your cut off point? do we let it drag on like we did with southgate or do we call it quits while we have an outside chance of going up. i think 12 months in teh job is plenty of time to show some improvement

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:19
The Strachan Effect

The thing is, people talk about how nothing has improved in 34 games as if that period is a lifetime.

This is where we are now as football fans. If a manager doesn't have a major influence within half a season, he's failed.

How did we get to this point? We're now indoctrinated to expect instant change and success, due to this 'now, no, NOW' culture.

I've tried to be objective with Strachan - some of the decisons he makes baffle me - but personally, I think it's short-sighted to expect a massive change of fortune within 6 months. That's why I don't think you can judge him on last season. He made it clear he didn't like what he saw, and set about changing it.

He is now close to getting the squad he wants, and as long as he makes further improvements prior to the window shutting (full backs and wingers), he has no further excuses. If he has failed come the end of the season, he should have no complaints if he is given the boot.

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:22
The Strachan Effect

Precisely.

6 months as a manager is nothing. Look at the job Moyes did at Everton for example, they were woeful when he first took over but slowly and surely he brought in the players he wanted and got them to gel as he wanted.

The same has to happen with Strachan. Co-incidentally 12 months into Strachan's job will be about our 14th game. I'd say by then we will have much more of a measure of how this team and squad will be doing and what we can expect of them. Not 90 minutes when most of them are still strangers to each other on the pitch.

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 11:22
The Strachan Effect

but giving him until the end of the season might be too late. we have to get promoted this season we never gave southgate all last season when we had a good start. surely its a bit double standards?

so skiprat, how long into a managers reign is a fair point to make a judgement if things havent improved? remember strachans form since he arrived is jsut above a relegation place

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:26
The Strachan Effect

Sas, I thought you'd now bought into the Boksic theory, so what's the point of replacing him? Whoever we brought in would have little or no effect, wouldn't they?

In all seriousness, what if we were struggling at Christmas, and decided to replace him? Do you really think another manager would turn our fortunes around within 6 months?

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 11:28
The Strachan Effect

gravyboat, if strachans form carries on as it is by xmas we will be in a relegation dog fight. so you really want to give him all season if it doesnt improve?

bear66 Posted on 10/08/2010 11:31
The Strachan Effect

"Look at the job Moyes did at Everton"

Took over in March, won their first game and they avoided relegation which was a real possibility when he took over - 7th in his first full season

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:32
The Strachan Effect

I've no idea when to judge a manager but it's definitely not after 10 months.

As has been just suggested to you, do you plan to get rid of Strachan if we're not up there by when? December?

And then what? Become like Geordies and replace the manager every 6 months? Ridiculous.

Everton would have got rid of Moyes using your yardstick.

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:32
The Strachan Effect

Do you really think we'll be 'in a relegation dogfight' at any time during the season?

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 11:35
The Strachan Effect

come on skiprat, you must have an idea when the time is right to sack a manger when things arent working out. bet gibson sacked southgate after about 14 games you werent against it!


gravyboat,

"Do you really think we'll be 'in a relegation dogfight' at any time during the season?"

well like i said if things dont improve we will be because thats the form strachan has shown in 34 games. this is why i am saying if things dont improve when do you move him on?

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 11:36
The Strachan Effect

Can I just ask you all to step back a couple of yards from the Everton myth before you fall into it.

I am ereceting the following sign for your own safety:

"EVERTON ARE A HUGE CLUB WITH HUGE RESOURCES"

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:41
The Strachan Effect

Like I say, I don't think you can use last season to judge how he will do this season.

Have a look at my posts when he first came in - I was fully prepared for us not getting promoted, because I felt it was necessary to start again with building a new squad as soon as possible.

I think its unfair, and short-sighted to assume last seasons form is a template for this season.

I'll say it again, lets see what happends between now a nd Spet the 1st, and then see what he does with the squad that he's built.

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:43
The Strachan Effect

What has Everton's resource got to do with the fact that Sas would have wanted Moyes out of a job after his first season?

Sas - A manager should be judged when they have had the time to bring in their own team, their own players and own ideas.

Strachan has had pretty much one game and still an open transfer window to do this.

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 11:50
The Strachan Effect

Skiprat - your point confirms a different point, people have a veiw that different managers with the exeact same resources can get radically better results. They can't.

Anyone who points to teams on a losing streak sacking a manager then winning a game should look into the concept of regression to mean.

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 11:55
The Strachan Effect

Why even bother having a manager? Just put a scarecrow in the dugout.

Jonny_Ingbar Posted on 10/08/2010 12:00
The Strachan Effect

Its a great arguement, apart from the facts getting in the way a bit.

A fundamental part of a managers job is to build a team - you can have two sets of players, both on a similar wage scales, but ones a team and one isn't.

The managers job is to spend his money prudently, this wage curve thing is a huge over-simplification of the competing factors at work.

Buddy Posted on 10/08/2010 12:02
The Strachan Effect

"Anyone who points to teams on a losing streak sacking a manager then winning a game should look into the concept of regression to mean."

And can then dedicate themselves to siting speed cameras at accident blackspots.

skiprat Posted on 10/08/2010 12:02
The Strachan Effect

Boksic seems to forget as well that it's just a theory. Just because a few people have wrote a book about it doesn't make it fact.

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 12:04
The Strachan Effect

only flaw i see in it is that strachan came in and did worse than southgate. but boskic hasnt explained that

Buddy Posted on 10/08/2010 12:10
The Strachan Effect

I don't know so much sas. He did point out that Brian Clough was a massively successful exception to the general rule. Perhaps Strachan is just the opposite.

Which brings me to Muttley's point:

"If you accept that the players have the greatest effect on any result then it's a little unfair to include the results gained by Strachan just after Southgate left. In that period it was Southgate's side"

Errrrrrrr....exactly. Same players, same budget, same stadia, same bus, same kit, same backroom staff (plus Pendrey), worse results. Only one variable changed and the results nosedived.

Hercules Posted on 10/08/2010 12:13
The Strachan Effect

but boskic hasnt explained that

He also can't explain Mourinho's success in cup competitions without admitting that Mourinho is a very good manager who influences the outcome of games to a considerable degree.

sasboro1 Posted on 10/08/2010 12:15
The Strachan Effect

yes it was southgates squad, but strachan came with reputation and supposed to be a significantly better manager than southgate so with the same tools he should be able to do a better job. even some improvement would be encouraging. what was it? 9 games without a win when he first arrived.

Buddy Posted on 10/08/2010 12:27
The Strachan Effect

I can do the cup competitions thing. It's quite difficult to predict points gained over the course of a season in cup competitions. See also: McClaren, S.

bear66 Posted on 10/08/2010 12:30
The Strachan Effect

"Skiprat - your point confirms a different point, people have a veiw that different managers with the exeact same resources can get radically better results. They can't."

Wrong again Boksic - Moyes got 4W 1D 3L from his first 8 games following 7 points in the previous 8 games. Well done new manager who made a difference with the same resources.

Hercules Posted on 10/08/2010 12:45
The Strachan Effect

Buddy, I'm not asking you or boksic for a prediction of points won in a cup competitions.

I'm asking him to reconcile his opinion that managers have little effect on how a team performs with the FACT that Mourinho has been very successful in cup competitions.

boksic Posted on 10/08/2010 13:31
The Strachan Effect

Bear - the flaw in your "facts" is that the wage curve predicts how many points a team will get over the course of a season, not a run of 7 or 8 games, and that season you refer to Everton got pretty much the number of points the wage curve predicted.

(It does not predict, as an example, that a team will race to 40 points in its first 20 games and then lose all the rest).

SidSnot Posted on 10/08/2010 17:15
The Strachan Effect

93% accuracy - so that's +/- 7% around the expected mean. i.e. if a team is predicted to get 50 points, then it could get anywhere between approx 46 and 54 points. That's the difference between 9th and 12th last year or the difference between 7th and 11th in the Premier League the year before. It could also mean the difference between relegation and survival or Champions League and not. Ergo - there are other variables to consider, but potentially Managers make a massive difference.

Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 10/08/2010 17:20
The Strachan Effect

'At the very least, Southgate was honest...'

[:D]

At the very least, you're gullible.

Buddy Posted on 10/08/2010 17:21
The Strachan Effect

Hercules - it's not "his opinion that a manager has very little effect on how a team performs", it's that statistically the wage bill can predict with 93% accuracy the points gained over the course of a season. There is no way to make that statistic fit the demands of a cup competition.

I would hypothesise - with no basis in research - that managerial tinkering, motivation and so on would have an amplified effect in a series of knockout games (which even the Champions League effectively consists of), which it is much more difficult to replicate over the course of a league season.

Hercules Posted on 10/08/2010 17:35
The Strachan Effect

I understand the relevance of the wage curve in terms of league points.

However completely seperate from that....how does he reconcile his opinion that managers have little effect with the fact that certain managers are very good in cup competitions. I'm not asking him to fit his wage curve theory to cup competitions. The two are completely seperate.

Buddy Posted on 10/08/2010 17:38
The Strachan Effect

And I'm saying I'm not sure he holds that opinion beyond what is predicted by the wage curve.

Hercules Posted on 10/08/2010 18:16
The Strachan Effect

I'm not sure how one can say a manager has no effect in the league games but a significant effect in cup games.

The aim is the same in either.

JASON1971 Posted on 10/08/2010 18:57
The Strachan Effect

Overall, Strachan has disappointed, but give him time to play Halliday and Kink, then we may see an improvement.
Although the football's been fairly poor, there have been flashes (Newcastle home, Barnsley home first half)and we've got some players who will score. The Scots will sort that midfield out.
Boro have been in a malaise for years ( the Uefa Cup run masked desperatley poor league form) and the original Soutgate experiment failed.
He said judge me after 3 years in management and we did. I will also judge him for his stance on zonal marking- he didn't seem to be able to change that mindset. I remember the life being sucked out of me as Adebayor rose unmarked at the Riverside and Fulham destroyed us at Craven Cottage.
In summary, Southgate's spineless Riverside team will always depress me more thsn what we have now.
It's not great, but could be....with Gareth, it was just disintegrating before our eyes

bear66 Posted on 10/08/2010 19:00
The Strachan Effect

We could be playing Man U on Saturday with Gareth . . . . just the dream of a cup draw sometime in the next 5 years now

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 19:02
The Strachan Effect

gravyboat Posted on 10/08/2010 09:58
The Strachan Effect
Email Message To A Friend | Reply To Message

'The few fans not shouting "top of the League, we'll beat them 4-0" (now that was hysteria) appear to be closer to reality'

Now now, Easy, don't start exaggerating.


That was bear66's post... [?]

There is a lot of talk on this thread about improvement under Strachan. I would have been happy if he'd managed to sustain the form we showed under Southgate, never mind improving it! It's gone horribly wrong and anyone who denies it is kidding themselves...

Will Strachan turn it around? I really hope he does, but I cant help feeling his reign will end in tears...

ste_north_stand Posted on 10/08/2010 19:04
The Strachan Effect

Like Southgates? [ref]

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 19:06
The Strachan Effect

Took yer time, Stevie... [ref]

ste_north_stand Posted on 10/08/2010 19:17
The Strachan Effect

Can't believe i missed all the fun. I ain't read it all but i'm guessing you are writing WGS off after the first game?

Easy Posted on 10/08/2010 19:18
The Strachan Effect

1 game you say? Maybe you should read the thread, Ste... [|)]

ste_north_stand Posted on 10/08/2010 22:54
The Strachan Effect

At least Scotty Mac is looking like he's on the right track to making you eat humble pie [^] has he scored more than Ali did last season yet? It must be tight [:D]

Easy Posted on 11/08/2010 00:07
The Strachan Effect

Ffs Ste... Who were we playing tonight?

No, he hasn't. He needs 3 more... [ref]

sasboro1 Posted on 11/08/2010 00:22
The Strachan Effect

"Can't believe i missed all the fun. I ain't read it all but i'm guessing you are writing WGS off after the first game?"

have you been in a coma since last october?incase you hadnt noticed we changed managers quite a while back

JimmyFloydHasselhoff Posted on 11/08/2010 05:56
The Strachan Effect

Boksic to say that a manager has little effect is laughable. The manager should set the whole tone of the club, the tatics, recruitment policy etc.

It is clear that there is a link between wages and success obviously, but players do not have a intrinsic 'wage' built in, it is up to the club to decide this i.e. getting a more effective player for a role who may be on cheaper wages can be classed as good management.

I bet you could plot managers wages versus finishing position and get a similar result. You could then argue that managers are extremely important as evidenced that the highest paid managers are at clubs finishing higher up.

ste_north_stand Posted on 11/08/2010 15:38
The Strachan Effect

Good to see you as cheery as ever sas! I said from day dot i'd start judging Strachan this season, once he had his own men in.

sasboro1 Posted on 11/08/2010 15:41
The Strachan Effect

we said the same about southgate didnt we[:D]

no, you have to take into account last season though. Surely strachan is meant to be far better than southgate so even with the same tools we should have seen an improvement of some kind. Unless you are a fan of Boksic's theory[;)]


boksic Posted on 11/08/2010 15:53
The Strachan Effect

Jimmy - "to say that a manager has little effect is laughable. The manager should set the whole tone of the club, the tatics, recruitment policy etc."

So why do most clubs then just end up with roughly the league finish that the wage curve predicts? Sounds like all those things you mention sound great but don't actually make much difference in practice.

"getting a more effective player for a role who may be on cheaper wages can be classed as good management" - the age curve indicates that this is a rarity and in the medium term better players simply cost more in wages to recruit and retain.

"I bet you could plot managers wages versus finishing position and get a similar result" - this has been done and it doesn't correlate as you suggest. If you add managers salary to the wage curve it skews it to less accurate not more. The same happens when you add in transfer fee spending.

Hercules Posted on 11/08/2010 16:42
The Strachan Effect

Seen as though you are ignoring my other question, I'll pose another...

Do you understand that just because there is a 93% correlation between wage spend and points accrued, that doesn't mean that there is a maximum of a 7% correlation between any other factor and points accrued? You seem to suggest that is the case an awful lot.

Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 11/08/2010 16:48
The Strachan Effect

The highest paid teams are usually at the top, no doubt about that.

We are, and have been for a few years, the exception to the rule.

bear66 Posted on 11/08/2010 16:54
The Strachan Effect

The performance of a team is a multi-variable problem with huge amounts of subjectivity regarding player capability, This "93% correlation" is a simple cause - effect though. The teams at the top have more 'win' money and strike bigger wage deals with their players. The league position comes first and the wages follow. If Blackpool win the league this season the correlation won't look good . . but it would the following year

ste_north_stand Posted on 11/08/2010 16:56
The Strachan Effect

I think the fact we had a poor season was down to the fact we didn't have many players with the stomach and experience to do well in this league as much as anything else. I don't think anybody would have done well here last year, we had a lot of problems when Southgate left. I don't think it's fair to judge any manager, not just Strachan until they have their own men in. I like the way Strachan is thinking and going about things, but as Saturday proved we still have some way to go, still a good few signings needed, we'll see what happens between now and the end of the window.

Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 11/08/2010 16:58
The Strachan Effect

'The teams at the top have more 'win' money and strike bigger wage deals with their players. The league position comes first and the wages follow.'

Certainly not true.

bear66 Posted on 11/08/2010 17:07
The Strachan Effect

'The teams at the top have more 'win' money and strike smaller wage deals with their players. The league position comes first and the low wages follow.'

Is that right then?

boksic Posted on 11/08/2010 17:09
The Strachan Effect

Herc - the wage curve does not directly apply to cup games and knockout competitions. As football is a relatively low scoring sport luck is as much of a factor in the outcome of any single game as anything else. Despite that it stands to reason that stronger teams are more likely to do well in knock out competitions but there is nothing like the wage curve you can use to correlate likely chances of winning a cup but the computer model used by the researchers at Warwick University can be useful for that. It weights the performance and relative strenght of every club in every competition in europe, this actually goes down to the performance of every player in every team in every competition in europe so they can assess players against the "average" player in their position.

Interestingly their model says Barcelona are better than Spain.

On the correlation point of course I understand it. The issue is do people on here understand what I mean when I say that the role of the manager in success or failure is, at best, overstated.

sasboro1 Posted on 11/08/2010 17:13
The Strachan Effect

surely the wage curve is quite accurate in the fa cup. just look at most of the teams who have won it in the last 10 years or so. pompey won it and their wage bill was through the roof and hit money problems since

Hercules Posted on 11/08/2010 17:26
The Strachan Effect

You are of the opinion that managers have little effect on the outcome of games.

You use the wage curve theory to back up your opinion. However the wage curve theory only applies to league games. It has nothing to do with cup games so please don't bring it up in an answer to the question of how you reconcile your opinion that managers have little effect on the outcome of games with the FACT that certain managers, none moreso than Mourinho, are very successful in cup competitions. You can't simply ignore cup games because there they don't fit with your opinion.

On the correlation point of course I understand it.

Great. So can you stop saying things like...

all I am saying is that it does not correlate 100% to points accrued, there are other factors - injuries to key players, bad refereeing and just downright bad luck - but that leaves relatively little room for the "manager effect".

It implies that 'the other 7%' is somehow made up of injuries, bad refs, luck and the "manager effect".

When in reality there can be a 93% correlation between wage spend and points accrued as well as a very large correlation between how good a manager is and points accrued. For example there could be a 100% correlation between how good the manager is and points accrued without contradicting the fact that there is a 93% correlation between wage spend and points accrued. Unfortunatly there is no way of measuring how good a manager is seperate from other factors so it's completely subjective.

boksic Posted on 11/08/2010 17:29
The Strachan Effect

"there is no way of measuring how good a manager is seperate from other factors so it's completely subjective" - nail on head there, but wage spend is the biggest factor.

Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 11/08/2010 17:31
The Strachan Effect

It is indeed.

We have been suffering from the Southgate factor though. An inability to spend wisely, and we're now in the shyte.

Hercules Posted on 11/08/2010 17:33
The Strachan Effect

How do you know? You can't quantitatively measure how good a manager is so for all we know there could be a 100% correlation between manager ability and points accrued. Likewise for most of the other factors like injuries, luck etc.

erimus74 Posted on 11/08/2010 17:40
The Strachan Effect

Easy why do you consistently bang on about southagte, he is the worst manager to manage our club, the season he took us down, & in his words 'this is my team now and judge me on it' well Gareth we did, and you failed badly, with your spineless, gutless, leaderless team, he practicly destroyed our club

Please let it go[^]

boksic Posted on 11/08/2010 17:43
The Strachan Effect

erimus - but you can't be sure of that without looking at what was happening to the relative wage bill at the time i.e. each season since Eindhoven.

Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 11/08/2010 17:46
The Strachan Effect

So boksic,

How many clubs paid higher wages than us last season? How about the three seasons previous?

I haven't seen any figures, yet I would imagine we were still one of the clubs to come to if you wanted a fat wallet.

Easy Posted on 11/08/2010 17:59
The Strachan Effect

Read the thread properly Erimus. I've said 'repeatedly' that this thread is not about Southgate! It's about the fact that things have got worse since Strachan took over... [^]

And who gives a f*** about Boksic's wage curve theory? It's boring and has been discussed over and over again. It's pure bollox that a manager has little or no effect on his team. How did Jose win the Champo League with Porto? How did he win it with Inter? Wage curve smage curve... [ref]

Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 11/08/2010 18:00
The Strachan Effect

You maybe should take notice of what he has to say. You may find yourself finally getting a grip on the realities of what's happened at your club.

Easy Posted on 11/08/2010 18:08
The Strachan Effect

Thanks Corcaigh, but I already have a grip son... I go on the BBC Tees phone in now and again, and get best caller 100% of the time. Not too shabby for someone lacking perspective of reality... [ref]

Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 11/08/2010 18:14
The Strachan Effect

[:D]

Are you sure?

Easy Posted on 11/08/2010 18:18
The Strachan Effect

Yes... Positive.

Corcaigh_the_Cat Posted on 11/08/2010 18:21
The Strachan Effect

[:D]

Easy Posted on 11/08/2010 18:27
The Strachan Effect

What's so funny? Do you doubt I'm telling the truth? Where's ste_north_stand when you need him? [ref]